Bottom line: WTI Crude bearish structure remains intact until prices stay below 63.33 resistance levels. Alternate wave counts are presented below.
Technical Analysis:
WTI Crude remains poised to drop through the 41.50 mark until prices stay below 63.33 levels, going forward. Looking at the medium term wave structure, 2 valid counts are possible and each has been presented below with the expected outcome. First, the drop between 76.88 and 42.40 looks to be an impulse labelled as Wave (1). The subsequent rally towards 66.58 was in 3 waves A-B-C labelled as Wave (2). Since then, a series of lower degree waves can be presented as Wave 1 and 2 in place at 52.45 and 63.33; followed by lower degree waves I and ii in place at 51.03 and 59.81 respectively. Another possible and valid could is of a barrier triangle A-B-C-D-E (decreasing resistance and constant support consolidation triangle), which is labelled as Alt: count on the chart here. In the alternate scenario, Wave (2) terminated at 59.81 levels on December 06, 2019 and prices should urn lower from here. Furthermore, prices should stay below 63.33 levels which is Wave C termination within the triangle consolidation. In either case, WTI Crude is poised to break lower and push towards 41.50 levels at least as Wave (3) of the same degree unfolds. Hence, a high probable trade direction from here is expected to be on the south side, against 63.33 levels, with projected targets below 41.50 respectively. Also note that a break below 51.00 levels would confirm the above and also accelerate the drop towards 41.50. A more conservative trading approach could be to initiate short positions on a break below 51.00 levels but the risk reward ratio would not be the best. Watch out for a bearish reversal around current price 59.00 levels any time soon.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst
WTI Crude Chart
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