Bottom line: WTI Crude bearish structure remains intact until prices stay below 63.33, going forward.
Technical Analysis:
WTI Crude pullback seems to be losing momentum around 60.50/61.00 levels, as it approached the fibonacci 0.786 resistance of earlier drop between 63.33 and 51.03 respectively. We have shown as an alternate count here, but the triangle count remains much valid as WTI Crude has drifted sideways since 42.30 lows (December 2018). The drop between 76.88 and 42.30 could be seen as an impulse and potential Wave (1). The subsequent price action can be considered as a barrier (constant support and dropping resistance) triangle that has taken 12 months to unfold. WTI Crude has unfolded into 5 waves A, B, C, D and potential E since 42.40 lows and each wave sub divided into 3 waves. If the above count is correct, Wave E has either terminated below 61.00 levels or would terminate below 63.33 any moment, which is Wave C of the triangle. With higher degree Wave (2) in place, a high probable trade direction would be on the south side, against 63.33 levels, with potential downside targets below 42.40 as Wave (3) unfolds. Please note that prices should stay below the 63.33 mark for the triangle count to remain valid. Another possibility is that Wave (2) was in place at 66.58 as labelled here and since then lower degree waves have unfolded, as Wave (3) progresses. In either case, we should be looking lower from here until 63.33 is in place and a break below 58.00 (initial support) would confirm that a top is in place around 61.00 levels. A more conservative trading approach would be to wait for prices to break below 58.00 and then sell on rallies against 63.33. The drop will accelerate further, once 50.70 is taken out.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst
WTI Crude Chart
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