Bottom line: AUDUSD bullish structure to remain intact until prices stay above 0.6750 levels, which is Wave (2)/B termination.
Technical Analysis:
AUDUSD bulls are expected to regain control after finding support around the 0.6850 zone today. Immediate upside targets remain around 0.7200 mark, while prices stay above 0.6750, which is potential Wave (2)/B termination. Looking at the short term wave count since 0.6750 lows print on November 29, 2019; AUDUSD bulls seem to have carved Waves 1 and 2 within Wave (3) at 0.7030 and 0.6850 levels respectively. Please note that the wave counts have been adjusted according to the price action unfolding since 0.7030 highs, since last week. Also note that Wave 2 termination was around the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of Wave 1, which should be encouraging to bulls. A high probable trade direction from here is expected o the north side against 0.6750 levels, with potential targets above 0.7200 mark. Also note that a Morning Star bullish candlestick pattern is appearing on the 4H chart, around 0.6850 levels, seen as potential bullish reversal. Now looking at the overall medium term wave structure since 0.6668 lows print on October 02, 2019; AUDUSD is looking poised to print higher, until prices stay above 0.6750 levels. The initial rally between 0.6668 and 0.6929 was in 5 waves, labelled as Wave (1)/A. This was followed by a corrective drop towards 0.6750 levels, labelled as Wave (2)/B. If the above described wave counts are correct, Wave (3) is progressing at the moment, and should sub divide into 5 waves towards 0.7200 levels. Bottom line remains that 0.6750 support should hold, for the above structure to push higher. A break below 0.6750 could indicate that the corrective rally A-B-C from 0.6668 through 0.7030 is complete, and AUDUSD might print fresh lows before finding a bottom.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
AUDUSD Chart
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