Bottom line: WTI Crude bearish structure remains intact until prices stay below 65.62 levels, which is also potential Wave (2) termination.
Technical Analysis:
WTI Crude is expected to remain in control of bears as long as 65.62 high is intact. For the short term though, a pullback/counter trend rally may push prices higher towards 62.30. Please note that 62.30 is fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the drop between 65.62 through 57.40 earlier. Looking at the short term counts (not displayed here), the drop between 65.62 and 57.40 is in 5 waves. Ideally, this should be retraced by a 3 wave corrective rally that may reach 62.00/63.00 zone, before reversing lower again. Lower degree waves have been marked as Wave 1 and potential Wave 2 underway. If the above count is correct, prices should stay below 65.62 and continue pushing lower towards the 45.00 mark at least. Also note that Wave (3) might have started from 65.62 and sub divide into 5 waves lower, pushing prices well below 45.00. Looking at the larger wave structure, WTI Crude might have produced 5 waves down, followed by a 3 waves rally. The earlier drop between 76.88 and 42.40 sub divided into 5 waves marked as Wave (1). This was followed by a complex corrective wave structure a-b-c (flat) that terminated at 65.62 on January 08, 2020. If the above counts are correct, another 5 wave drop can be expected pushing WTI Crude below 42.40, going forward. Digging further, lower degree wave 1 of (3) could be in place at 57.40 and prices are pushing higher to terminate wave 2 around 62.00/63.00. Once the counter trend rally is complete, a 3rd of (3) rd wave should resume lower towards 45.00. It is safe to remain short and add further towards 62.00, against 65.62 and potential target towards 45.00 respectively.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
WTI Crude Chart
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