Bottom line: USDCHF bearish structure remains intact since 0.9850 resistance holds. After having hit a Fibonacci support at 0.9440/50 we can expect a retracement.
Technical Analysis:
USDCHF remains firmly in control of bears since 0.9850 levels when we had called for a potential bearish reversal see at least below 0.9500 going forward. It has already breached lower and hit 0.9440 today, which is the Fibonacci 0.382 target of the earlier drop between 1.0023 and 0.9613 respectively. Please note that further downside still remains possible towards 0.9360, but ideally we can expect a meaningful pullback from current levels (0.9445), before the drop could continue further. Looking at the immediate short term wave count, Wave 3 of (3) is underway since 0.9850 levels, and is expected to terminate below 0.6360 levels respectively. The long term wave structure remains bearish since USDCHF had dropped from 1.0237 levels. Please note that a classic 5-3 structure was in place between 1.0237 and 1.0027 respectively. The drop between 1.0237 through 0.9659 was sub divided into 5 waves labelled as Wave (1). The subsequent rally between 0.9659 and 1.0027 was corrective, labelled as A-B-C, Wave (2). Since then, a larger degree Wave (3) has been underway and sub waves 1 and 2 seem to be in place at 0.9613 and 0.9850 levels respectively. If the above counts are correct, USDCHF is producing Wave 3 of (3) since 0.9850 levels. With prices seem to be hitting a major Fibonacci support at 0.9440/50 today, traders might be looking to take profits on the short positions taken earlier since 0.9850 levels, and remain flat while a pullback is underway. Watch out for a potential counter trend rally from current levels (0.9445) that could retrace the recent drop by at least 50%. Watch out for 0.9640 levels acting as resistance, going forward.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
USDCHF Chart
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