Bottom line: GBPJPY bullish structure remains intact until prices stay above 124.08 lows. A corrective drop could be seen towards 129.00 at least, before the rally could resume.
Fundamental Outlook:
The major market movers today are the NFP figures coming out at 08:30 AM EST and the Unemployment rates. Both are expected to decline significantly, which could drive the US Dollar lower against majors. NFP figures expected to print -100K, while Unemployment rate dropping to 3.8%.
Furthermore, the rise in the number of cases due to COVID-19 in the US and other countries should diminish economic conditions further in the medium term.
The number of Jobless Claims in the U.S exceeded over 6.6 million, for March 2020. The numbers could rise in the coming weeks as more apply for unemployment benefits.
WTI Crude Oil witnessed a spick of over 25% yesterday on news of Mr Trump having spoken to the Russian and Saudi Arabian counterparts, suggesting an end to the price war.
Technical Analysis:
GBPJPY could continue rallying nut we might expect a corrective drop to materialize towards 129.00 levels at least. The currency pair has rallied from 124.08 levels through 134.70 respectively, which is also fibonacci 0.382 retracement of previous drop.
Interim resistance could be seen around current levels and bears might be able to drag prices lower towards 129.00 handle before resuming the last leg rally, to complete the counter trend. Please note that GBPJPY might retrace higher towards fibonacci 0.618 levels around 138.90 levels. This might terminate the counter trend before turning lower again.
Most traders might be preparing to initiate long positions again around the 128.00/129.00 support zone, with protective stops below 124.00 and projected targets around 139.00 mark, going forward.
Overall, be prepared for a slight correction in the GBPJPY before pushing higher towards 139.00 levels respectively.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
GBPJPY Chart
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