Bottom line: DAX long term structure continues to remain bearish against 13800 resistance. Further, the counter trend rally from 8200 seems to have completed around 13300 mark as bears prepare to resume lower again.
Fundamental Outlook:
DAX had dropped yesterday alongside global indices and closed at 12945, down -0.67%. As we enter a historically volatile month of September, Dow Jones and SPX500 also closed lower by -0.86% and -0.37% respectively. A swift recovery by the safe haven US Dollar as we enter September, might trigger risk aversion. Investors might remain cautious, over the next few weeks.
WTI Crude has managed to hit $43.75 levels, highest since April lows. The commodity has managed to produce an unprecedented rally since $0.01 historic lows in April 2020 over OPEC production cuts in recent weeks and optimism in demand after lockdown phase.
Gold has inched higher again towards $1990.00 levels today. The yellow metal had mostly remained subdues in a range since the all-time highs around $2075 on August 07, 2020. It might lose further ground if safe haven US Dollar inched higher from here.
Technical Analysis:
DAX resistance remains around 13800 mark and traders might be looking lower as long as prices stay below 13800 levels. The indice might have resumed lower yesterday and a break below 12600 interim support, will accelerate towards 12200 and beyond. It might face resistance around 13300 levels.
DAX had dropped from 13800 through 8000 mark in February-March 2020. The drop was an impulse, which has been followed by a corrective rally towards 13300 levels respectively. Ideally the indice should stay below 13800 as bears prepare to push lower towards sub 8000 levels.
Also note that corrective rally had touched fibonacci 0.88 retracement level of earlier drop, around 13300 mark. High probability remains for a bearish reversal from current levels. Immediate interim support is seen towards 12600, followed by 12227 levels respectively.
Most traders might be preparing to initiate fresh short positions around current price action (12900/13000), with protective stops above 13800 and projected targets below 8000 mark respectively. Only a break above 13800, would change the above bearish structure.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
DAX Chart
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