Bottom line: EURUSD long term structure remains bullish against 1.0636 lows for now. In the short term though, a meaningful top seems to be in place at 1.2000 mark. Bears are looking poised to remain in control over the next few weeks.
Fundamental Outlook:
EURUSD had rallied through 1.2010 levels before finding selling pressure over the last week. The exchange rate might remain under pressure over the next several weeks as risk aversion might have triggered on Friday. The safe haven US Dollar might be set to gain further.
FTSE had dropped to 5776 last week before closing at 5837, down over -2.47%. Global equity markets closed in the red over the last week with Dow Jones at (-1.82%), SPX500 down (-2.31%) and DAX (-1.46%). Investors might be wary of potential volatility over the next 4-8 weeks.
GBPUSD had dropped through 1.3176 on Friday before finding some support and closed around 1.3276 mark. The exchange rate might witness further volatile price action as it takes its cues from the Brexit deal. Fisheries remain major concern as EU and UK negotiations resume today. Adding further pressure might be the rising unemployment and the requirement of another stimulus as stated by BoE.
Technical Analysis:
EURUSD seems to have finally carved a meaningful top at 1.2010 mark on September 01, 2020. The currency has further carved interim lows around 1.1780 before pulling back. It is trading around 1.1830 for now and bears are inclined to hold below 1.2010, going further.
EURUSD has completed an impulse wave from 1.0636 lows in March, through 1.2010 high in September 2020. Ideally, an impulse should be followed by a corrective wave in the opposite direction. The currency might be preparing to retrace the above rally at least.
The fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above rally is seen through 1.1160 mark (not highlighted on the chart today). If bears successfully manage to drag prices through the above mark, EURUSD might produce a meaningful bullish bounce thereafter.
Most traders might be preparing to initiate fresh short positions around interim resistance (1.1900/50) with a protective stop above 1.2000 handle and projected target towards 1.1100 levels over the next several weeks. Only a break above 1.2000, might change the structure in the short term.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
EURUSD Chart
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