Bottom line: NZDUSD bullish structure remains intact until 0.6200 is in place. Bulls are very close to carving a higher low around 0.6350 levels.
Technical Analysis:
NZDUSD is probably into its final leg of the corrective drop/retracement that began from 0.6755 levels earlier. Looking at the corrective phase here, a potential zigzag A-B-C seems to be complete or is close to completion around 0.6350 mark. If the above count is correct, NZDUSD bulls are expected to come back strong from nearby levels and resume Wave (3) higher towards 0.7200 levels going forward. Also note that daily RSI is showing a bullish divergence presented on the chart. Looking at the counts, Wave 4 within Wave C unfolded as an expanded flat and terminated at 0.6487 levels. The 5th wave is near to complete and is expected to terminate around 0.6350 levels before reversing higher. A break above 0.6487 would confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place and NZDUSD should produce higher highs and higher lows from here. Most traders might be preparing to go long from current levels (0.6350), with a protective stop below 0.6200 and projected targets above 0.7200 levels respectively. Looking at the overall wave structure since 0.6200 lows, NZDUSD seems to have produced Wave 1 at a higher degree. Since then it has been in a corrective phase that lasted for close to 2 months. If the above larger wave counts are correct, we should see a Wave 3 rally materialize sharply towards 0.7200 going forward. Alternately, a continued drop below 0.6300 and further would challenge 0.6200 levels and indicate that NZDUSD still has room for bottom formation below the 0.6200 mark. More conservative traders might be looking for a break above 0.6487 levels before committing on the long side.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
NZDUSD Chart
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