Bottom line: EURUSD bullish structure remains intact until prices stay above 1.0778 levels. The intermediary counter trend seems to be complete at 1.1053.
Technical Analysis:
EURUSD remains in control of bulls in the long term after having carved a meaningful bottom at 1.0778 on February 28, 2020. After staging an impressive rally towards 1.1500 levels, EURUSD was expected to produce a corrective drop lower towards the 1.1100 handle. It has produced a sharp drop to the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous rally, around 1.1050/53 levels. Looking into the short term wave counts since 1.0778 lows, the rally towards 1.1500 could be labelled as Wave 1. The subsequent drop to 1.1053 could be labelled as Wave 2 or a within an a-b-c drop. In case Wave 2 is in place already, EURUSD should rally from current levels towards 1.1700 and 1.1900 levels respectively, as Wave 3 unfolds. Alternately, if the recent drop is Wave a within a-b-c corrective drop, we might witness wave b higher, followed by Wave c terminating below 1.1053 levels. In either case, EURUSD is expected to rally from current levels or after yet another low, possibly towards 1.0932 levels, going forward. Bottom line for bulls to remain in control is that prices must stay above 1.0778 levels respectively. Most traders might be willing to initiate long positions around current price (1.1128) and also add more if prices reach 1.0930/40 levels, with protective stop at 1.0778 and projected targets towards 1.1900 levels respectively. Looking at a higher degree, the EURUSD had carved a larger degree impulse between 1.0340 and 1.2555 levels from Jan 2017 to Feb 2018 respectively. This was followed by an (A)-(B)-(C) corrective drop between 1.2555 and 1.0778 levels from Feb 2018 to Feb 2020 respectively. Ideally, EURUSD is expected to produce yet another 5 wave rally towards 1.2555 and higher.
Prepared by
Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.
EURUSD Chart
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