Forex Analysis:GBPUSD Remains Bearish Against 1.2800/10

Bottom line: GBPUSD long term structure remains bullish against 1.1414 lows. Over the next…

Bottom line: GBPUSD long term structure remains bullish against 1.1414 lows. Over the next few weeks, the currency might remain in control of bears as they prepare to correct lower towards 1.1900/1.2000 levels.

Fundamental Outlook:

EURUSD had managed to pullback from Friday lows of 1.1250 at close. It is trading comfortably above 1.1320 as we prepare to publish the update. Risk sentiment managed to recover despite the rising COVID-19 cases in the US and Asian countries. EURUSD faces a major event risk on July 17, as European Union meets to decide on another EURO 750 billion fiscal stimulus.

GBPUSD managed to gain over the past few trading sessions and peaked 1.2666 today. A broad US Dollar weakness over the past sessions has supported the rise from 1.2250 through 1.2660. Major event risks over the week are Brexit developments, UK GDP figures to be out tomorrow and Unemployment rate the day after.

FTSE had registered 6000 levels last week before pulling back. The indice is trading close to 6200 levels as we prepare to publish today’s update and is soon expected to come under further downside pressure. It is a common phenomenon for risk appetite to rise with rising fundamental concerns, but it might be sending a contrarian signal (risk aversion might be back).

Technical Analysis:

GBPUSD seems to have carved a lower top around 1.2666 levels today and bears would be ready to take control back from here. The counter trend rally seems to be complete for now and the currency might reverse lower towards 1.2000 levels.

GBPUSD had earlier dropped from 1.2800 through 1.2250 levels. The counter trend rally has reached just over the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the above drop, seen towards 1.2600 respectively. Bears might be poised to resume lower from here.

Traders might be preparing to initiate fresh short positions around current price action (1.2620/25), with protective stops above 1.2800 respectively. The projected downside targets remain close to 1.2000 mark.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.

 

 


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