Forex Analysis:WTI Crude Remains Bearish Against $43.75

Bottom line: WTI Crude long term outlook remains bullish against $0.01 lows. Over the near…

Bottom line: WTI Crude long term outlook remains bullish against $0.01 lows. Over the near term though, the commodity is expected to remain under pressure as bears might prepare to push through $27.00 and $17.00 levels. Intraday pullbacks should remain well capped below $43.75 mark.

 Fundamental Outlook:

DAX had pushed through 13450 highs early this month, before facing selling pressure. The indice trades close to 13200 levels as we prepare to publish and would be taking cues from global indices Dow Jones and SPX500 over the next several weeks. It would be interesting to see if DAX manages to push through its 13800 February 2020 peak.

WTI Crude prices have remained under pressure since hitting highs at $43.75 around August 26, 2020. The recent volatility in global markets might have raised concerns over demand. If risk aversion continues further, the commodity might come under renewed pressure around $41.00/41.00 levels.

Gold prices have gained traction since yesterday as the yellow metal trades $1965 today. US Dollar remained under pressure against Japanese Yen and marginally against EURO, Aussie Dollar and Kiwi. This has helped the yellow metal push through one week high around $1965/66 mark.

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude has remained in control of bears since printing highs at $43.75 mark. The commodity has print $36.15 lows on September 08, 2020 before drifting sideways. Another push lower towards $27.00 mark remains possible before finding interim support.

WTI Crude has remained in control of bulls since hitting historic lows around $0.01 levels in March 2020. It has managed to carve a series of higher highs and higher low until hitting major resistance around $43.75 levels. At least a corrective drop towards $27.00 and $17.00 might remain possible.

Also note that fibonacci 0.382 retracement of rally between $0.01 and $43.75 is seen around $26.50, while 0.618 retracement is seen through $16.50 levels respectively. High probability remains for a bullish turn if prices manage to reach the above zone.

Most traders might be willing to hold short positions initiated from sub $43.00 mark earlier. The protective stop might be kept above $44.00 while projected targets remain towards $27.00 and $17.00 respectively. Intraday resistance might be seen around $41.00/42.00 levels.

Prepared by

Harsh Japee, Technical Analyst.


WTI Crude Chart


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